Catalyst Pharmaceuticals [CPRX] — Financial Model Notes

Provenance, derivations and reproducibility for every figure used in this memo. Framework: Criteria, 2026-07-29. Analysis date 2026-07-29.

No Excel model was built. The security was extinguished for cash on 2026-07-15 and no forward projection has a referent. Building a three-statement model for a company that no longer exists would be work product without information content. What follows is the full derivation of every number that is used, so that each is independently reproducible.

1. Data sources

Recency assertion (per valuation.md data hygiene): latest 10-Q filed 2026-05-11 for period ending 2026-03-31; latest 10-K filed 2026-02-25. At the analysis date the newest financial data is 119 days old, and it is the last data that will ever exist — Form 15-12G suspended reporting on 2026-07-24. Not stale by error; terminal by fact.

2. Revenue — TTM build and verification

Quarterly us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, four quarters to 2026-03-31:

Screen value 596,958,000 — exact match. The Q4 derivation is stated because Catalyst does not tag a discrete Q4 period; the "TTM that skipped Q4 entirely" failure mode noted in the brief is explicitly avoided here.

Annual series (Total revenue incl. licence/other): 2021 140,833 · 2022 214,203 · 2023 398,204 · 2024 491,734 · 2025 588,989.

3. Product-level revenue — the organic/acquired decomposition

Source: Note 2, "net product revenue disaggregated by product", FY2023 / FY2024 / FY2025 10-K, and 10-Q Q1-26. These are audited, company-published tables. Nothing here is reconstructed or estimated.

FYCOMPA 2023 covers 2023-01-24 (acquisition) → 2023-12-31. AGAMREE 2024 covers 2024-03-13 (launch) → 2024-12-31. Both partial periods are footnoted by the company.

Q1: FIRDAPSE 83,731 → 98,859 · AGAMREE 22,042 → 36,713 · FYCOMPA 35,627 → 13,771 · total 141,421 → 149,390.

Derivations:

Total CAGR FY22→FY25       = (588,989 / 214,203)^(1/3) − 1 = 40.1%   [reproduces screen exactly]
FIRDAPSE CAGR FY22→FY25    = (358,380 / 213,938)^(1/3) − 1 = 18.8%   [same-product / organic]

Revenue added FY22→FY25    = 588,989 − 214,203 = 374,786
  FIRDAPSE  358,380 − 213,938 = 144,442  →  38.5%
  FYCOMPA   113,341 −       0 = 113,341  →  30.2%   (acquired, Eisai, 2023-01-24)
  AGAMREE   117,086 −       0 = 117,086  →  31.2%   (in-licensed, Santhera, 2023-07-11)
  ACQUIRED / IN-LICENSED      = 230,427  →  61.5%

4. Margins

TTM EBIT = Q2-25 66,298 + Q3-25 66,267 + Q4-25 (257,778 − 195,932 = 61,846) + Q1-26 73,232 = 267,643.

No us-gaap:GrossProfit tag exists for this issuer. The screen correctly returned gross_margin_pct: null rather than evaluating nan > threshold to FAIL — a correct D1 handling, worth recording positively.

Q1 comparison used for the royalty mechanism: Q1-25 cost of sales 17,911 (= 9M-25 61,179 − ... derived as H1-25 38,525 − Q2-25 20,614), giving gross margin 87.33% → 90.31%, +2.98pp.

5. Balance sheet and share count

Net cash = $755,859k, cash-only basis. Screen value — exact match.

Scale cross-check (net income ÷ shares ≈ filed EPS):

214,326 / 122,290.866 = $1.7526  vs filed basic EPS   $1.75  ✓
214,326 / 127,257.929 = $1.6842  vs filed diluted EPS $1.68  ✓

Single share class; no dual-class dimensional-tagging problem. Discrepancy reported, not silently adopted: the screen's 122.381m basic shares understate the ~130.2m fully-diluted count implied by the transaction's stated $4.1bn equity value by 7.8m shares (6.4%), and therefore understate EV by $246m (7.9%).

6. Working capital — DSO derivation

DSO = accounts receivable ÷ quarterly revenue × days in quarter.

FY2025 cash-flow statement: accounts receivable −61,001, inventory −18,089, accounts payable −5,391, accrued expenses +24,164 → operating cash flow 208,670 against net income 214,326 (FY2024: 239,808 against 163,889).

Company's stated cause (FY2025 10-K MD&A): distributor contract renegotiation — reduced fees paid to the customer recorded as a reduction in gross-to-net expenses, in exchange for monthly rather than semi-monthly settlement; a ~$27.0m December-2025 receipt landed 2026-01-02. Adjusting Q4-25 AR for that $27.0m gives 99,477 → DSO 60.0 days — still up 19 days on the H1-25 average of 43.2. The revenue benefit of the fee reduction is not quantified by the company and is not estimated here.

7. Own-multiple history — construction

Purpose: the 12-month target's multiple anchor, per valuation.md step 3.

Method. Daily closes 2020-07-27 → 2026-07-14 (Alpaca, IEX feed, adjustment=raw, n = 1,498 sessions). For each session, enterprise value is computed point-in-time as close × shares outstanding − cash & equivalents, using the most recent quarterly XBRL values lagged 45 days to approximate filing availability. TTM revenue and TTM EBIT are rolling four-quarter sums with Q4 derived as FY − 9M. Quarters with a negative TTM EBIT are excluded from the EV/EBIT distribution.

Reference points:

Limitation, stated: IEX-feed closes may differ marginally from consolidated closes; the SIP trades/latest and snapshot endpoints corroborate the final price to the cent ($31.49). SIP historical bars returned HTTP 403 on this entitlement.

8. Implied-path test — reproduction commands

R=~/.claude/skills/investment-memo/assets/reverse_dcf.py
python3 $R --spot 31.49 --shares 122.381 --net-cash 755.859 --revenue 596.958 \
  --years 5 --wacc 0.10 --terminal-margin <TM> --exit-multiple <EM> \
  --solve cagr --hist-cagr 0.401

EV implied by price = 31.49 × 122.381 − 755.859 = $3,097.9m (5.19x TTM revenue). Confirms the screen's ev: 3,097,918,438.

9. Volatility

Log-return population standard deviation, annualised by √252, on the IEX daily close series:

10. Mention-frequency corpus

Intended source per references/mention-frequency.md: Alpha Vantage EARNINGS_CALL_TRANSCRIPT, minimum 8 quarters. Actual: 2024Q1 retrieved; the second request returned the shared 25/day rate-limit Information payload. Transcript metric = INDETERMINATE. One quarter cannot support a time-series claim and none is made.

Substitute corpus, clearly labelled and not represented as transcripts: 15 quarterly earnings releases filed as 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2023-02-07 → 2026-05-11, pulled from the EDGAR filing index (51 Ex-99.1 documents total; non-earnings releases excluded by title match). Word counts 1,269–3,420. All counts normalised per 1,000 words — the ISRG transcript-length artifact is controlled for. No prepared-remarks / Q&A split is available in this corpus and none is claimed. Full series in CPRX_Research.md §5.

11. Figures deliberately NOT produced